Modelling transformational adaptation to climate change among crop farming systems in Romagna, Italy

As the impact of climate change on agricultural sector has begun to manifest itself in its severity, adaptation planning come under scrutiny for favoring preservation status-quo conditions over more substantial changes. The uptake transformational adaptations, involving a significant re-structuring system, is however hindered by lack assessment tools capable quantifying effects these often complex, far-reaching, and unprecedented Agent-based models can simulate decision processes multi-level feedbacks between system components may therefore illustrate how adaptations emerge help identify cases where their implementation necessary desirable. We explore this modelling potential aim quantify (1) change, farmer behavior water policies influence strategic decision-making at farm-level, (2) extent which implemented represent transformations, (3) farm structure wider socio-ecological change. investigate aims through case study crop farming systems drought-prone historical region Romagna (NE Italy), integrating insight from stakeholder interviews, local reports, spatially-explicit biophysical data behavioral theory construction an agent-based model. Results show that, average, than half all are thereby requiring important social financial investments farmers. number transformations highest scenarios drought risk perception among farmers widespread, notably simulating drier climates, adaptive behaviors promoting greater use efficiency. Under higher perception, motivated broader set including those outside trajectory determined strategy. This process particularly favors increases size irrigated area, eventually stimulating adopt expansionist Regionally, lead smallest decline with fewest, yet profit-earning farmers, largely exacerbating presently occurring trends. policy increased irrigation availability, fewer initially experience perceive risk. Consequently, undertake switch contractive expansive strategy, culminating relatively smaller less profitable despite larger population. transformative changes strategy trigger engage new path-dependencies, rebound into unintended effects, emphasizing importance accounting perspectives.